David Cerero Guerra

David Cerero Guerra's picture
Graduate School Student



David studies how armed actors in Latin America govern communities and how interactions between them and the state generate violent and non-violent equilibriums. More broadly, he is interested in quantitative methods and formal models to understand violence and peace in developing contexts. He currently holds a Fulbright scholarship for graduate studies in the U.S.
Previously, he worked as a Research Associate for Innovations for Poverty Action in a project aimed at understanding gang governance conditions in low-income neighborhoods in Colombia. He worked as a Research Analyst in governance, crime, and ex-combatants projects, was a Data Adviser in the National Planning Department of Colombia, and was a Research Assistant for a World Bank and Harvard University project in developing countries.



  • MSc in Economics, Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia
  • BA in Economics, Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia

Working Papers & Publications:

  • Cerero-Guerra, D. Crop Prices and Violence: The Crop Substitution Effect in the Presence of Illegal Markets. [Working Paper]
  • Cerero-Guerra, D. Oil and Violence: A Natural Experiment on the Extensive Margin in Colombia. [Working Paper].
  • Blattman, C., Cerero-Guerra, D., Mesa, J. & Tobón, S. Measuring the Measurement Error: Experimental Analysis of Extortion in Medellín. [Working paper].
  • Blattman, C., Cerero-Guerra, D., Duncan, G., Hernandez, S., Lessing, B., Martinez, J. F., Mesa-Mejia, J.P., Montoya, H. & Tobon, S. (2022). Crimen y Covid-19. Cómo los combos de Medellín respondieron a la pandemia [Crime and COVID-19: How Medellin Gangs reacted to the pandemic]. In Cortes, D., Posso, C., & Villamizar-Villegas, M. (Editorial Universidad del Rosario, Banco de la República). COVID-19 Consecuencias y desafíos de la economia colombiana [COVID-19: Consequences and Challenges for the Colombian Economy]. 2022.
  • Cerero-Guerra, D. Evaluación de Impacto de la Infraestructura recreativa y cultural en los niveles de crimen locales [Impact Evaluation of the Recreative and Cultural Infrastructure on the Local Crime Levels]. Master’s degree Thesis. Universidad de los Andes. Bogotá. 2014


  • Political Economy