November 2, 2020
Daniel J. Hopkins has an piece in the Washington Post Monkey Cage “Should Biden and Trump focus more on persuading swing voters — or mobilizing the base?“
The article references the paper available on SSRN, written with Professor Greg Huber and Seth Hill, entitled “And Not by Turnout Alone: Measuring the Sources of Electoral Change, 2012 to 2016”.
The article suggests that differences in election results across years may result from a combination of two variables - “getting different people to cast ballots or getting existing voters to choose someone different.”