A new study by Yale political scientist Josh Kalla shows that experts performed little better than chance in identifying effective political messaging.
Political campaigns spend big bucks hiring consultants to craft persuasive messaging, but a new study coauthored by Yale political scientist Joshua L. Kalla demonstrates that political professionals perform no better than laypeople in predicting which messages will sway voters.
In the study, Kalla and his coauthors evaluated how well sample groups of political practitioners — professionals who work for political campaigns, polling firms, and advocacy organizations — and members of the public could predict the effectiveness of 172 campaign messages concerning 21 political issues, including legalizing marijuana, cancelling student debt, and increasing border security.